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Fundacion AIFI vs Angostura FC — Segunda División 2018

Fundacion AIFI
Fundacion AIFI
FT
1 – 2
Angostura FC
Angostura FCadvanced
5/17/2019Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsCTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fundacion AIFI39%
×Draw29%
Angostura FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundacion AIFI
1.17
Angostura FC
1.04

Fundacion AIFI creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 74 away

creates per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.06
Angostura FC
1.05

allows per match

Fundacion AIFI
1.02
Angostura FC
1.28

finishing

Fundacion AIFI+0.00on par
Angostura FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundacion AIFI ↓

Angostura FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fundacion AIFI or draw
68%
Fundacion AIFI or Angostura FC
71%
Draw or Angostura FC
61%

Winning margin

Fundacion AIFI wins by 2+
16%
Angostura FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fundacion AIFI 1+ goals
69%
Fundacion AIFI 2+ goals
33%
Fundacion AIFI 3+ goals
11%
Angostura FC 1+ goals
65%
Angostura FC 2+ goals
28%
Angostura FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fundacion AIFI (draw refunded)
55%
Angostura FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundacion AIFI at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.02 · 66 matches

Angostura FC away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.28 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundacion AIFI attack 1.06 + Angostura FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.17

Angostura FC attack 1.05 + Fundacion AIFI defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fundacion AIFI scores more
39%
level
29%
Angostura FC scores more
32%

Fundacion AIFI at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fundacion AIFI will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundacion AIFI 1–2 Angostura FC

Angostura FC beat Fundacion AIFI 2-1 in Segunda División on May 17, 2019.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).