Fulham 1–2 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Liverpool

R. Babel 74'

J. Milner 81' (pen)

S. Mané 26'

3/17/2019

Premier League · Round 31Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Fulham34%

×Draw26%

Liverpool40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.39

Fulham

1.28

Liverpool

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

1.24

creates per match

1.61

1.17

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Fulham

1.24

Liverpool

1.61

allows per match

Fulham

1.17

Liverpool

1.32

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Fulham+0.17scores more

Liverpool+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

60%

Fulham or Liverpool

74%

Draw or Liverpool

66%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

15%

Liverpool wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

72%

Fulham 2+ goals

37%

Fulham 3+ goals

14%

Liverpool 1+ goals

75%

Liverpool 2+ goals

40%

Liverpool 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

47%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.17 · 32 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.32 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.24 + Liverpool defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.28

Liverpool attack 1.61 + Fulham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fulham scores more

34%

level

26%

Liverpool scores more

40%

Liverpool at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Mané

Liverpool · F

8.5

Match Events

26'

S. Mané↳ Roberto Firmino

39'

Fabinho

65'

André Zambo Anguissa

65'

R. Sessegnon← J. Seri

72'

J. Milner← A. Lallana

72'

D. Origi← Roberto Firmino

73'

C. Christie← T. Fosu-Mensah

74'

R. Babel

81'

J. MilnerPenalty

82'

N. Kebano← T. Cairney

90'

Joe Bryan

90+2'

D. Sturridge← Mohamed Salah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamLiverpool

Overview

37%Possession63%

7Total Shots16

1Corners10

11Fouls7

Shots

7Total Shots16

2On Target6

2Off Target7

3Blocked3

2Inside Box11

5Outside Box5

Passing

37%Possession63%

365Total Passes595

274Accurate Passes501

75%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1