Fulham 2–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Crystal Palace

A. Mitrović 61', 45+5' (pen)

J. Ward 83'

O. Édouard 34'

5/20/2023

Premier League · Round 37Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Fulham40%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.21

Fulham

1.34

Crystal Palace

1.21

Fulham creates 11% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.35

creates per match

1.26

1.15

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Fulham

1.35

Crystal Palace

1.26

allows per match

Fulham

1.15

Crystal Palace

1.33

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Fulham+0.23scores more

Crystal Palace-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

66%

Fulham or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

60%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

18%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

74%

Fulham 2+ goals

39%

Fulham 3+ goals

15%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

70%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

34%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

54%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.33 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.35 + Crystal Palace defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Crystal Palace attack 1.26 + Fulham defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fulham scores more

40%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

34%

Fulham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fulham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

Willian

Fulham · M

7.9

Match Events

34'

O. Édouard↳ E. Eze

45+5'

A. MitrovićPenalty

61'

A. Mitrović↳ Willian

71'

Tosin Adarabioyo

80'

B. De Cordova-Reid← H. Wilson

80'

M. Solomon← T. Cairney

80'

J. Mateta← O. Édouard

83'

J. Ward

85'

João Palhinha

90+1'

Antonee Robinson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamCrystal

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots11

1.67Expected Goals (xG)1.55

7Corners4

13Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target5

3Off Target3

4Blocked3

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

352Total Passes371

265Accurate Passes291

75%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2