Fulham United 1–1 West Adelaide: Result & Stats

Fulham United

FT

1 – 1

West Adelaide

7/30/2022

South Australia State League 1 · Round 20West Beach Parks Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Fulham United39%

×Draw25%

West Adelaide36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fulham UnitedExpected goals in this matchWest Adelaide

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.42

Fulham United

1.47

West Adelaide

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 47 away

1.66

creates per match

1.53

1.31

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Fulham United

1.66

West Adelaide

1.53

allows per match

Fulham United

1.31

West Adelaide

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fulham United+0.00on par

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham United ↓

West Adelaide →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Fulham United or draw

64%

Fulham United or West Adelaide

75%

Draw or West Adelaide

61%

Winning margin

Fulham United wins by 2+

18%

West Adelaide wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fulham United 1+ goals

77%

Fulham United 2+ goals

43%

Fulham United 3+ goals

18%

West Adelaide 1+ goals

76%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

41%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fulham United (draw refunded)

51%

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham United at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.31 · 65 matches

West Adelaide away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham United attack 1.66 + West Adelaide defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.47

West Adelaide attack 1.53 + Fulham United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fulham United scores more

39%

level

25%

West Adelaide scores more

36%

Fulham United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fulham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff