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Fulgencio Yegros vs Sportivo Trinidense — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
PST
22:00
Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense
8/1/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 20Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros31%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Trinidense41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.08
Sportivo Trinidense
1.29

Sportivo Trinidense creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 62 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
Sportivo Trinidense
1.34

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.25
Sportivo Trinidense
1.32

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
59%
Fulgencio Yegros or Sportivo Trinidense
72%
Draw or Sportivo Trinidense
69%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
12%
Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
66%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
29%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
10%
Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals
72%
Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals
37%
Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
43%
Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.34 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
31%
level
28%
Sportivo Trinidense scores more
41%

Sportivo Trinidense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fulgencio Yegros face Sportivo Trinidense (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with Fulgencio Yegros hosting Sportivo Trinidense. Match starts August 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fulgencio Yegros host Sportivo Trinidense at Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.