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Fulgencio Yegros vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
PST
22:00
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
5/30/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 11Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros34%
×Draw29%
Guaraní de Trinidad37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.09
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.25
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
63%
Fulgencio Yegros or Guaraní de Trinidad
71%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
66%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
13%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
66%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
30%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
10%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
69%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
32%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
48%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
34%
level
29%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
37%

Guaraní de Trinidad at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guaraní de Trinidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fulgencio Yegros host Guaraní de Trinidad

May 30, 2020: Fulgencio Yegros take on Guaraní de Trinidad in Division Intermedia. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fulgencio Yegros host Guaraní de Trinidad at Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.