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Fulgencio Yegros vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2018

Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
PST
22:00
Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
6/13/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 13Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fulgencio Yegros33%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Santani38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fulgencio Yegros
1.09
Deportivo Santani
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 85 away

creates per match

Fulgencio Yegros
0.85
Deportivo Santani
1.13

allows per match

Fulgencio Yegros
1.25
Deportivo Santani
1.33

finishing

Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par
Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulgencio Yegros ↓

Deportivo Santani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fulgencio Yegros or draw
62%
Fulgencio Yegros or Deportivo Santani
72%
Draw or Deportivo Santani
67%

Winning margin

Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
66%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
30%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
47%
Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulgencio Yegros at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.85 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportivo Santani attack 1.13 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fulgencio Yegros scores more
33%
level
28%
Deportivo Santani scores more
38%

Deportivo Santani at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fulgencio Yegros vs Deportivo Santani — Match Preview

Fulgencio Yegros face Deportivo Santani on June 13, 2020 in this Division Intermedia fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Fulgencio Yegros host Deportivo Santani at Estadio Parque Fulgencio Yegros.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.