Fujieda MYFC 2–1 Ventforet Kofu: Result & Stats

Fujieda MYFC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ventforet Kofu

6/1/2024

J2 League · Round 18Fujieda City General Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Fujieda MYFC33%

×Draw27%

Ventforet Kofu40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fujieda MYFCExpected goals in this matchVentforet Kofu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.33

Fujieda MYFC

1.19

Ventforet Kofu

1.33

Ventforet Kofu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 166 away

1.25

creates per match

1.29

1.36

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Fujieda MYFC

1.25

Ventforet Kofu

1.29

allows per match

Fujieda MYFC

1.36

Ventforet Kofu

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Ventforet Kofu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fujieda MYFC ↓

Ventforet Kofu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fujieda MYFC or draw

60%

Fujieda MYFC or Ventforet Kofu

73%

Draw or Ventforet Kofu

67%

Winning margin

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+

14%

Ventforet Kofu wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals

70%

Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals

33%

Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals

12%

Ventforet Kofu 1+ goals

74%

Ventforet Kofu 2+ goals

38%

Ventforet Kofu 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)

45%

Ventforet Kofu (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fujieda MYFC at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 59 matches

Ventforet Kofu away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 166 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.25 + Ventforet Kofu defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Ventforet Kofu attack 1.29 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fujieda MYFC scores more

33%

level

27%

Ventforet Kofu scores more

40%

Ventforet Kofu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ventforet Kofu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff