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Fujieda MYFC vs Thespakusatsu Gunma — League #100 2026

Fujieda MYFC
Fujieda MYFC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Thespakusatsu Gunma
Thespakusatsu Gunma
R. Iwabuchi 89'
M. Akimoto 83' (OG)
5/18/2019League #100League #100 · Round 9Fujieda City General Sports Park (Fujieda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Fujieda MYFC34%
×Draw30%
Thespakusatsu Gunma36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fujieda MYFC
1.00
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fujieda MYFC
1.00
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.22

allows per match

Fujieda MYFC
0.86
Thespakusatsu Gunma
1.00

finishing

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par
Thespakusatsu Gunma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fujieda MYFC ↓

Thespakusatsu Gunma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fujieda MYFC or draw
64%
Fujieda MYFC or Thespakusatsu Gunma
70%
Draw or Thespakusatsu Gunma
66%

Winning margin

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+
13%
Thespakusatsu Gunma wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals
63%
Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals
26%
Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals
8%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 1+ goals
65%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 2+ goals
28%
Thespakusatsu Gunma 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)
49%
Thespakusatsu Gunma (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fujieda MYFC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Thespakusatsu Gunma away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.00 + Thespakusatsu Gunma defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Thespakusatsu Gunma attack 1.22 + Fujieda MYFC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Fujieda MYFC scores more
34%
level
30%
Thespakusatsu Gunma scores more
36%

Thespakusatsu Gunma at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Thespakusatsu Gunma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

83'
M. AkimotoOwn goal
89'
R. Iwabuchi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #100: Fujieda MYFC 1–1 Thespakusatsu Gunma

Fujieda MYFC and Thespakusatsu Gunma drew 1-1 in League #100 on May 18, 2019.

Goals: M. Akimoto (83' o.g.), R. Iwabuchi (89').

The match was played at Fujieda City General Sports Park (Fujieda).