Fuerza Amarilla 1–0 Manta FC: Result & Stats

Fuerza Amarilla

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Manta FC

4/1/2018

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 5Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla43%

×Draw29%

Manta FC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuerza AmarillaExpected goals in this matchManta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.93

Fuerza Amarilla

1.23

Manta FC

0.93

Fuerza Amarilla creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 104 away

1.19

creates per match

0.91

0.94

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla

1.19

Manta FC

0.91

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla

0.94

Manta FC

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Manta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Manta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw

72%

Fuerza Amarilla or Manta FC

71%

Draw or Manta FC

57%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+

19%

Manta FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals

71%

Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals

35%

Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals

13%

Manta FC 1+ goals

61%

Manta FC 2+ goals

24%

Manta FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)

61%

Manta FC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.94 · 31 matches

Manta FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.19 + Manta FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Manta FC attack 0.91 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more

43%

level

29%

Manta FC scores more

28%

Fuerza Amarilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fuerza Amarilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff