Fuerte San Francisco 1–1 Isidro Metapán

Fuerte San Francisco

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Isidro Metapán

11/11/2023

Primera Division · Apertura - 19Estadio Correcaminos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fuerte San Francisco31%

×Draw29%

Isidro Metapán40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fuerte San FranciscoExpected goals in this matchIsidro Metapán

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.20

Fuerte San Francisco

1.02

Isidro Metapán

1.20

Isidro Metapán creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 147 away

0.79

creates per match

1.07

1.33

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Fuerte San Francisco

0.79

Isidro Metapán

1.07

allows per match

Fuerte San Francisco

1.33

Isidro Metapán

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuerte San Francisco+0.00on par

Isidro Metapán+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerte San Francisco ↓

Isidro Metapán →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fuerte San Francisco or draw

60%

Fuerte San Francisco or Isidro Metapán

71%

Draw or Isidro Metapán

69%

Winning margin

Fuerte San Francisco wins by 2+

12%

Isidro Metapán wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Fuerte San Francisco 1+ goals

64%

Fuerte San Francisco 2+ goals

27%

Fuerte San Francisco 3+ goals

8%

Isidro Metapán 1+ goals

70%

Isidro Metapán 2+ goals

34%

Isidro Metapán 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fuerte San Francisco (draw refunded)

44%

Isidro Metapán (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerte San Francisco at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Isidro Metapán away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerte San Francisco attack 0.79 + Isidro Metapán defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Isidro Metapán attack 1.07 + Fuerte San Francisco defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fuerte San Francisco scores more

31%

level

29%

Isidro Metapán scores more

40%

Isidro Metapán at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Isidro Metapán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff