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FSV Zwickau vs Greifswalder FC — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

FSV Zwickau
FSV Zwickau
Preview
12:00
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
8/1/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 2GGZ-Arena Zwickau
41%
FSV Zwickau
model favours
41%28%31%

Greifswalder FC score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FSV Zwickau41%
×Draw28%
Greifswalder FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Zwickau
1.25
Greifswalder FC
1.06

FSV Zwickau creates 18% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 33 away

creates per match

FSV Zwickau
1.11
Greifswalder FC
1.12

allows per match

FSV Zwickau
1.00
Greifswalder FC
1.39

finishing

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Zwickau ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FSV Zwickau or draw
69%
FSV Zwickau or Greifswalder FC
72%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
59%

Winning margin

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+
18%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals
71%
FSV Zwickau 2+ goals
36%
FSV Zwickau 3+ goals
13%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
65%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
29%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)
56%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Zwickau at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Zwickau attack 1.11 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Greifswalder FC attack 1.12 + FSV Zwickau defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FSV Zwickau scores more
41%
level
28%
Greifswalder FC scores more
31%

FSV Zwickau at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FSV Zwickau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 91% of Greifswalder FC’s matches
  • FSV Zwickau and Greifswalder FC have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zwickau
LWWDL
FC
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FSV Zwickau vs Greifswalder FC — Match Preview

FSV Zwickau face Greifswalder FC on August 1, 2026 in this Regionalliga - Nordost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FSV Zwickau host Greifswalder FC at GGZ-Arena Zwickau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.