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FSV Zwickau vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena — Regionalliga - Nordost 2026

FSV Zwickau
FSV Zwickau
Preview
13:00
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
11/29/2026Regionalliga - NordostRegionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 18GGZ-Arena Zwickau
Big match
44%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
model favours
30%26%44%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FSV Zwickau30%
×Draw26%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSV Zwickau
1.20
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.50

FC Carl Zeiss Jena creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

creates per match

FSV Zwickau
1.11
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
2.00

allows per match

FSV Zwickau
1.00
FC Carl Zeiss Jena
1.28

finishing

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par
FC Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Zwickau ↓

FC Carl Zeiss Jena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FSV Zwickau or draw
56%
FSV Zwickau or FC Carl Zeiss Jena
74%
Draw or FC Carl Zeiss Jena
70%

Winning margin

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+
13%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals
70%
FSV Zwickau 2+ goals
34%
FSV Zwickau 3+ goals
12%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals
78%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals
44%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)
41%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Zwickau at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

FC Carl Zeiss Jena away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Zwickau attack 1.11 + FC Carl Zeiss Jena defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.20

FC Carl Zeiss Jena attack 2.00 + FSV Zwickau defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FSV Zwickau scores more
30%
level
26%
FC Carl Zeiss Jena scores more
44%

FC Carl Zeiss Jena at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Carl Zeiss Jena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Zwickau
LWWDL
Jena
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FSV Zwickau vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena — Match Preview

FSV Zwickau face FC Carl Zeiss Jena on November 29, 2026 in this Regionalliga - Nordost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FSV Zwickau host FC Carl Zeiss Jena at GGZ-Arena Zwickau.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.