FSV Zwickau 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena: Result & Stats

FSV Zwickau

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Carl Zeiss Jena

R. König 49', 35'

D. Bock 3'

10/22/2017

League #80 · Round 13Stadion Zwickau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

FSV Zwickau73%

×Draw19%

Carl Zeiss Jena7%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FSV ZwickauExpected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.44

FSV Zwickau

1.94

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.44

FSV Zwickau creates 341% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

0.20

0.67

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

FSV Zwickau

1.67

Carl Zeiss Jena

0.20

allows per match

FSV Zwickau

0.67

Carl Zeiss Jena

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FSV Zwickau+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSV Zwickau ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FSV Zwickau or draw

93%

FSV Zwickau or Carl Zeiss Jena

81%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena

27%

Winning margin

FSV Zwickau wins by 2+

47%

Carl Zeiss Jena wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

FSV Zwickau 1+ goals

86%

FSV Zwickau 2+ goals

58%

FSV Zwickau 3+ goals

30%

Carl Zeiss Jena 1+ goals

36%

Carl Zeiss Jena 2+ goals

7%

Carl Zeiss Jena 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

FSV Zwickau (draw refunded)

91%

Carl Zeiss Jena (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSV Zwickau at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena away — creates 0.20, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSV Zwickau attack 1.67 + Carl Zeiss Jena defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Carl Zeiss Jena attack 0.20 + FSV Zwickau defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

FSV Zwickau scores more

73%

level

19%

Carl Zeiss Jena scores more

7%

FSV Zwickau at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "FSV Zwickau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

D. Bock

15'

M. Wolfram← M. Starke

31'

Marius Grosch

35'

R. König↳ R. Lange

37'

Guillaume Cros

49'

R. König↳ M. Könnecke

56'

58'

61'

61'

61'

F. Dietz← D. Bock

78'

Dennis Slamar

80'

D. Ferfelis← A. Öztürk

84'

C. Mauersberger← N. Miatke

86'

Rene Lange

90+3'

F. Wagner← M. Könnecke

Statistics

FSVCarl

Overview

4Corners1

Discipline

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: FSV Zwickau vs Carl Zeiss Jena

FSV Zwickau beat Carl Zeiss Jena 2-1 in League #80 on October 22, 2017.

Goals: D. Bock (3'), R. König (35', 49').

The match was played at Stadion Zwickau in Zwickau.

FSV Zwickau vs Carl Zeiss Jena — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: FSV Zwickau vs Carl Zeiss Jena