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FSC Hochegger Dächer vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

FSC Hochegger Dächer
FSC Hochegger Dächer
FT
6 – 5
TuS Heiligenkreuz
TuS Heiligenkreuz
9/1/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 5PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer57%
×Draw20%
TuS Heiligenkreuz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.34
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.44

FSC Hochegger Dächer creates 63% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.58
TuS Heiligenkreuz
1.49

allows per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer
1.38
TuS Heiligenkreuz
2.10

finishing

FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par
TuS Heiligenkreuz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSC Hochegger Dächer ↓

TuS Heiligenkreuz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

FSC Hochegger Dächer or draw
77%
FSC Hochegger Dächer or TuS Heiligenkreuz
80%
Draw or TuS Heiligenkreuz
43%

Winning margin

FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+
36%
TuS Heiligenkreuz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals
90%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals
67%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals
41%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 1+ goals
76%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 2+ goals
42%
TuS Heiligenkreuz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)
71%
TuS Heiligenkreuz (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSC Hochegger Dächer at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.58 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.34

TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more
57%
level
20%
TuS Heiligenkreuz scores more
23%

FSC Hochegger Dächer at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FSC Hochegger Dächer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Steiermark: FSC Hochegger Dächer 6–5 TuS Heiligenkreuz

FSC Hochegger Dächer beat TuS Heiligenkreuz 6-5 in Landesliga - Steiermark on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at PROfertil ARENA in Hartberg.