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FSC Hochegger Dächer vs Ilz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

FSC Hochegger Dächer
FSC Hochegger Dächer
CANC
13:00
Ilz
Ilz
11/4/2023Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 14PROfertil ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

FSC Hochegger Dächer53%
×Draw21%
Ilz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.21
Ilz
1.53

FSC Hochegger Dächer creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

creates per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer
2.58
Ilz
1.69

allows per match

FSC Hochegger Dächer
1.38
Ilz
1.85

finishing

FSC Hochegger Dächer+0.00on par
Ilz+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FSC Hochegger Dächer ↓

Ilz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

FSC Hochegger Dächer or draw
73%
FSC Hochegger Dächer or Ilz
79%
Draw or Ilz
47%

Winning margin

FSC Hochegger Dächer wins by 2+
32%
Ilz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FSC Hochegger Dächer 1+ goals
89%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 2+ goals
65%
FSC Hochegger Dächer 3+ goals
38%
Ilz 1+ goals
78%
Ilz 2+ goals
45%
Ilz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

FSC Hochegger Dächer (draw refunded)
66%
Ilz (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FSC Hochegger Dächer at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.38 · 45 matches

Ilz away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.85 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FSC Hochegger Dächer attack 2.58 + Ilz defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.21

Ilz attack 1.69 + FSC Hochegger Dächer defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FSC Hochegger Dächer scores more
53%
level
21%
Ilz scores more
27%

FSC Hochegger Dächer at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FSC Hochegger Dächer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FSC Hochegger Dächer host Ilz

November 4, 2023: FSC Hochegger Dächer take on Ilz in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FSC Hochegger Dächer host Ilz at PROfertil ARENA.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.