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FS Jelgava vs Tukums — Virsliga 2026

FS Jelgava
FS Jelgava
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tukums
Tukums
3/17/2024VirsligaVirsliga · Round 2FK Jelgava Treniņbāze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

FS Jelgava50%
×Draw23%
Tukums27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FS Jelgava
1.76
Tukums
1.23

FS Jelgava creates 43% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 96 away

creates per match

FS Jelgava
1.14
Tukums
1.05

allows per match

FS Jelgava
1.42
Tukums
2.38

finishing

FS Jelgava+0.00on par
Tukums+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FS Jelgava ↓

Tukums →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FS Jelgava or draw
73%
FS Jelgava or Tukums
77%
Draw or Tukums
50%

Winning margin

FS Jelgava wins by 2+
27%
Tukums wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FS Jelgava 1+ goals
83%
FS Jelgava 2+ goals
52%
FS Jelgava 3+ goals
26%
Tukums 1+ goals
71%
Tukums 2+ goals
35%
Tukums 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FS Jelgava (draw refunded)
65%
Tukums (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FS Jelgava at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

Tukums away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.38 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FS Jelgava attack 1.14 + Tukums defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tukums attack 1.05 + FS Jelgava defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FS Jelgava scores more
50%
level
23%
Tukums scores more
27%

FS Jelgava at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FS Jelgava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FS Jelgava vs Tukums

Tukums beat FS Jelgava 3-2 in Virsliga on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at FK Jelgava Treniņbāze in Jelgava.