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Frösö vs Umea FF — Division 2 - Norrland 2019

Frösö
Frösö
FT
1 – 2
Umea FF
Umea FF
6/5/2021Division 2 - NorrlandDivision 2 - Norrland · Norrland - 10Lövsta aktivitetscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Frösö19%
×Draw21%
Umea FF60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frösö
1.05
Umea FF
2.05

Umea FF creates 95% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 46 away

creates per match

Frösö
1.27
Umea FF
2.09

allows per match

Frösö
2.02
Umea FF
0.83

finishing

Frösö+0.00on par
Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frösö ↓

Umea FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Frösö or draw
40%
Frösö or Umea FF
79%
Draw or Umea FF
81%

Winning margin

Frösö wins by 2+
7%
Umea FF wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Frösö 1+ goals
65%
Frösö 2+ goals
28%
Frösö 3+ goals
9%
Umea FF 1+ goals
87%
Umea FF 2+ goals
61%
Umea FF 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Frösö (draw refunded)
24%
Umea FF (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frösö at home — creates 1.27, concedes 2.02 · 40 matches

Umea FF away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frösö attack 1.27 + Umea FF defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Umea FF attack 2.09 + Frösö defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Frösö scores more
19%
level
21%
Umea FF scores more
60%

Umea FF at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Umea FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norrland: Frösö 1–2 Umea FF

Umea FF beat Frösö 2-1 in Division 2 - Norrland on June 5, 2021.

The match was played at Lövsta aktivitetscenter in Frösön.