Frosinone 1–1 Cagliari: Result & Stats | Serie A

Frosinone

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cagliari

F. Cassata 14'

Diego Farias 77'

12/2/2018

Serie A · Round 14Stadio Benito Stirpe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Frosinone35%

×Draw26%

Cagliari39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FrosinoneExpected goals in this matchCagliari

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.36

Frosinone

1.28

Cagliari

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 128 away

0.94

creates per match

0.94

1.79

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Frosinone

0.94

Cagliari

0.94

allows per match

Frosinone

1.79

Cagliari

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Frosinone+0.00on par

Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frosinone ↓

Cagliari →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Frosinone or draw

61%

Frosinone or Cagliari

74%

Draw or Cagliari

65%

Winning margin

Frosinone wins by 2+

15%

Cagliari wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Frosinone 1+ goals

72%

Frosinone 2+ goals

37%

Frosinone 3+ goals

14%

Cagliari 1+ goals

74%

Cagliari 2+ goals

39%

Cagliari 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Frosinone (draw refunded)

47%

Cagliari (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frosinone at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.79 · 33 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.62 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frosinone attack 0.94 + Cagliari defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cagliari attack 0.94 + Frosinone defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Frosinone scores more

35%

level

26%

Cagliari scores more

39%

Cagliari at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cagliari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Cragno

Cagliari · G

8.6

Match Events

14'

F. Cassata↳ F. Zampano

32'

34'

37'

40'

54'

60'

61'

P. Faragò← F. Bradarić

62'

Diego Farias← M. Sau

70'

L. Crisetig← F. Cassata

70'

A. Pinamonti← J. Campbell

77'

Diego Farias↳ João Pedro

81'

D. Dessena← A. Ioniţă

85'

85'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FrosinoneCagliari

Overview

38%Possession62%

22Total Shots17

5Corners1

13Fouls16

Shots

22Total Shots17

11On Target6

6Off Target7

5Blocked4

16Inside Box9

6Outside Box8

Passing

38%Possession62%

371Total Passes605

297Accurate Passes521

80%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves10

Discipline

13Fouls16

1Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2