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Frigg Oslo FK W vs Kolbotn W — 1. Division Women 2022

Frigg Oslo FK W
Frigg Oslo FK W
Preview
12:00
Kolbotn W
Kolbotn W
8/2/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 12
68%
Kolbotn W
model favours
14%18%68%
0–2
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Frigg Oslo FK W14%
×Draw18%
Kolbotn W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frigg Oslo FK W
0.94
Kolbotn W
2.34

Kolbotn W creates 149% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 17 away

creates per match

Frigg Oslo FK W
1.00
Kolbotn W
1.88

allows per match

Frigg Oslo FK W
2.80
Kolbotn W
0.88

finishing

Frigg Oslo FK W+0.00on par
Kolbotn W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frigg Oslo FK W ↓

Kolbotn W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Frigg Oslo FK W or draw
32%
Frigg Oslo FK W or Kolbotn W
82%
Draw or Kolbotn W
86%

Winning margin

Frigg Oslo FK W wins by 2+
4%
Kolbotn W wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Frigg Oslo FK W 1+ goals
61%
Frigg Oslo FK W 2+ goals
24%
Frigg Oslo FK W 3+ goals
7%
Kolbotn W 1+ goals
90%
Kolbotn W 2+ goals
67%
Kolbotn W 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Frigg Oslo FK W (draw refunded)
17%
Kolbotn W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frigg Oslo FK W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Kolbotn W away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frigg Oslo FK W attack 1.00 + Kolbotn W defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.94

Kolbotn W attack 1.88 + Frigg Oslo FK W defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Frigg Oslo FK W scores more
14%
level
18%
Kolbotn W scores more
68%

Kolbotn W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kolbotn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLLLL
W
LLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frigg Oslo FK W vs Kolbotn W — Match Preview

Frigg Oslo FK W face Kolbotn W on August 2, 2026 in this 1. Division Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.