Friedberg 2–0 Eddersheim: Result & Stats

Friedberg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eddersheim

11/4/2023

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 16Kunstrasenplatz Friedberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Friedberg48%

×Draw21%

Eddersheim31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FriedbergExpected goals in this matchEddersheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.65

Friedberg

2.10

Eddersheim

1.65

Friedberg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 91 away

2.46

creates per match

1.78

1.52

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Friedberg

2.46

Eddersheim

1.78

allows per match

Friedberg

1.52

Eddersheim

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Friedberg+0.00on par

Eddersheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Friedberg ↓

Eddersheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Friedberg or draw

69%

Friedberg or Eddersheim

79%

Draw or Eddersheim

52%

Winning margin

Friedberg wins by 2+

28%

Eddersheim wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Friedberg 1+ goals

88%

Friedberg 2+ goals

62%

Friedberg 3+ goals

35%

Eddersheim 1+ goals

81%

Eddersheim 2+ goals

49%

Eddersheim 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Friedberg (draw refunded)

61%

Eddersheim (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Friedberg at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.52 · 93 matches

Eddersheim away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.75 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Friedberg attack 2.46 + Eddersheim defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.10

Eddersheim attack 1.78 + Friedberg defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Friedberg scores more

48%

level

21%

Eddersheim scores more

31%

Friedberg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Friedberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff