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Fremad Amager vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
Preview
14:00
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
3/20/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 19
39%
Fremad Amager
model favours
39%28%32%

Fremad Amager score first in only 10% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Fremad Amager39%
×Draw28%
VSK Århus32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.21
VSK Århus
1.06

Fremad Amager creates 14% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 29 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.31
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Fremad Amager
0.98
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
68%
Fremad Amager or VSK Århus
72%
Draw or VSK Århus
61%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
17%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
70%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
34%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
12%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
65%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
29%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
55%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
39%
level
28%
VSK Århus scores more
32%

Fremad Amager at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • VSK Århus win just 15% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Amager
DLWL
Århus
WWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fremad Amager vs VSK Århus — Match Preview

Fremad Amager face VSK Århus on March 20, 2027 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.