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Fremad Amager vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Fremad Amager
Fremad Amager
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
HIK
HIK
M. Al Atlassi 90+7'
A. Johansen 76'
J. Wielzen 57'
4/26/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 3Sundby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Fremad Amager49%
×Draw25%
HIK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fremad Amager
1.56
HIK
1.04

Fremad Amager creates 50% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 81 away

creates per match

Fremad Amager
1.31
HIK
1.11

allows per match

Fremad Amager
0.98
HIK
1.81

finishing

Fremad Amager+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fremad Amager ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fremad Amager or draw
75%
Fremad Amager or HIK
75%
Draw or HIK
51%

Winning margin

Fremad Amager wins by 2+
25%
HIK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fremad Amager 1+ goals
79%
Fremad Amager 2+ goals
46%
Fremad Amager 3+ goals
21%
HIK 1+ goals
65%
HIK 2+ goals
28%
HIK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fremad Amager (draw refunded)
66%
HIK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fremad Amager at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.98 · 48 matches

HIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.81 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fremad Amager attack 1.31 + HIK defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

HIK attack 1.11 + Fremad Amager defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fremad Amager scores more
49%
level
25%
HIK scores more
25%

Fremad Amager at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fremad Amager will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
J. Wielzen
76'
A. Johansen
90+7'
M. Al Atlassi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fremad Amager vs HIK

Fremad Amager beat HIK 3-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Wielzen (57'), A. Johansen (76'), M. Al Atlassi (90+7').

The match was played at Sundby Idrætspark in København.