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Frem vs Skovshoved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Frem
Frem
FT
5 – 1
Skovshoved
Skovshoved
10/14/20172nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 11Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Frem48%
×Draw24%
Skovshoved29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.73
Skovshoved
1.29

Frem creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 13 away

creates per match

Frem
1.47
Skovshoved
1.31

allows per match

Frem
1.27
Skovshoved
2.00

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
Skovshoved+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

Skovshoved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Frem or draw
71%
Frem or Skovshoved
76%
Draw or Skovshoved
52%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
26%
Skovshoved wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
82%
Frem 2+ goals
52%
Frem 3+ goals
25%
Skovshoved 1+ goals
72%
Skovshoved 2+ goals
37%
Skovshoved 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
62%
Skovshoved (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

Skovshoved away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.47 + Skovshoved defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Skovshoved attack 1.31 + Frem defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Frem scores more
48%
level
24%
Skovshoved scores more
29%

Frem at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frem vs Skovshoved

Frem beat Skovshoved 5-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 14, 2017.

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.