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Frem vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Frem
Frem
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
HIK
HIK
I. Tannander 58'
F. Kristensen 49' (pen)
R. Arabaci 63'
F. Andersen 4'
4/15/20232nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Relegation Round - 1Valby Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Frem46%
×Draw25%
HIK29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frem
1.60
HIK
1.21

Frem creates 32% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 83 away

creates per match

Frem
1.40
HIK
1.16

allows per match

Frem
1.26
HIK
1.81

finishing

Frem+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frem ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Frem or draw
71%
Frem or HIK
75%
Draw or HIK
54%

Winning margin

Frem wins by 2+
24%
HIK wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Frem 1+ goals
80%
Frem 2+ goals
47%
Frem 3+ goals
22%
HIK 1+ goals
70%
HIK 2+ goals
34%
HIK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Frem (draw refunded)
62%
HIK (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frem at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 53 matches

HIK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frem attack 1.40 + HIK defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

HIK attack 1.16 + Frem defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frem scores more
46%
level
25%
HIK scores more
29%

Frem at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
F. Andersen
49'
F. KristensenPenalty
58'
I. Tannander
63'
R. Arabaci

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frem vs HIK

Frem and HIK drew 2-2 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on April 15, 2023.

Goals: F. Andersen (4'), F. Kristensen (49' pen), I. Tannander (58'), R. Arabaci (63').

The match was played at Valby Idrætspark in København.