Freialdenhoven 1–4 VfL Vichttal: Result & Stats

Freialdenhoven

FT

1 – 4

VfL Vichttal

8/19/2021

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 2Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Freialdenhoven36%

×Draw23%

VfL Vichttal41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreialdenhovenExpected goals in this matchVfL Vichttal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.75

Freialdenhoven

1.61

VfL Vichttal

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 79 away

1.45

creates per match

1.92

1.57

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Freialdenhoven

1.45

VfL Vichttal

1.92

allows per match

Freialdenhoven

1.57

VfL Vichttal

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

VfL Vichttal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

VfL Vichttal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw

59%

Freialdenhoven or VfL Vichttal

77%

Draw or VfL Vichttal

64%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

17%

VfL Vichttal wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

80%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

48%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

22%

VfL Vichttal 1+ goals

83%

VfL Vichttal 2+ goals

52%

VfL Vichttal 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

46%

VfL Vichttal (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

VfL Vichttal away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.78 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + VfL Vichttal defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

VfL Vichttal attack 1.92 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more

36%

level

23%

VfL Vichttal scores more

41%

VfL Vichttal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "VfL Vichttal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff