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Freialdenhoven vs Hürth — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
CANC
13:00
Hürth
Hürth
4/5/2021Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Sportanlage Ederener Straße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Freialdenhoven44%
×Draw23%
Hürth33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freialdenhoven
1.74
Hürth
1.49

Freialdenhoven creates 17% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 66 away

creates per match

Freialdenhoven
1.45
Hürth
1.41

allows per match

Freialdenhoven
1.57
Hürth
2.03

finishing

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par
Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freialdenhoven ↓

Hürth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Freialdenhoven or draw
67%
Freialdenhoven or Hürth
77%
Draw or Hürth
56%

Winning margin

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
23%
Hürth wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
82%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
52%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
25%
Hürth 1+ goals
77%
Hürth 2+ goals
44%
Hürth 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
57%
Hürth (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freialdenhoven at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freialdenhoven attack 1.45 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.74

Hürth attack 1.41 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Freialdenhoven scores more
44%
level
23%
Hürth scores more
33%

Freialdenhoven at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Freialdenhoven face Hürth (Oberliga - Mittelrhein)

Oberliga - Mittelrhein returns with Freialdenhoven hosting Hürth. Match starts April 5, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Freialdenhoven host Hürth at Sportanlage Ederener Straße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.