Freeport 1–5 LPRC Oilers: Result & Stats

Freeport

FT

1 – 5

LPRC Oilers

4/9/2023

LFA First Division · Round 24Antoinette Tubman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Freeport31%

×Draw24%

LPRC Oilers45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FreeportExpected goals in this matchLPRC Oilers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.71

Freeport

1.37

LPRC Oilers

1.71

LPRC Oilers creates 25% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

1.50

creates per match

1.60

1.82

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Freeport

1.50

LPRC Oilers

1.60

allows per match

Freeport

1.82

LPRC Oilers

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par

LPRC Oilers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

LPRC Oilers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Freeport or draw

55%

Freeport or LPRC Oilers

76%

Draw or LPRC Oilers

69%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+

14%

LPRC Oilers wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals

75%

Freeport 2+ goals

40%

Freeport 3+ goals

16%

LPRC Oilers 1+ goals

82%

LPRC Oilers 2+ goals

51%

LPRC Oilers 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)

40%

LPRC Oilers (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

LPRC Oilers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + LPRC Oilers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.37

LPRC Oilers attack 1.60 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Freeport scores more

31%

level

24%

LPRC Oilers scores more

45%

LPRC Oilers at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "LPRC Oilers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff