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Freeport vs LISCR — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
LISCR
LISCR
3/9/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 19TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Freeport30%
×Draw24%
LISCR46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.34
LISCR
1.72

LISCR creates 28% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 73 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
LISCR
1.62

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
LISCR
1.18

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
LISCR+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

LISCR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
54%
Freeport or LISCR
76%
Draw or LISCR
70%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
13%
LISCR wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
74%
Freeport 2+ goals
39%
Freeport 3+ goals
15%
LISCR 1+ goals
82%
LISCR 2+ goals
51%
LISCR 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
39%
LISCR (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

LISCR away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.18 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + LISCR defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.34

LISCR attack 1.62 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Freeport scores more
30%
level
24%
LISCR scores more
46%

LISCR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "LISCR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freeport vs LISCR

LISCR beat Freeport 3-0 in LFA First Division on March 9, 2023.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.