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Freeport vs Invincible Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Invincible Eleven
Invincible Eleven
3/13/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 17Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Freeport44%
×Draw24%
Invincible Eleven32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.63
Invincible Eleven
1.36

Freeport creates 20% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 51 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Invincible Eleven
0.90

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Invincible Eleven
1.76

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Invincible Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Invincible Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
68%
Freeport or Invincible Eleven
76%
Draw or Invincible Eleven
56%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
22%
Invincible Eleven wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
80%
Freeport 2+ goals
48%
Freeport 3+ goals
22%
Invincible Eleven 1+ goals
74%
Invincible Eleven 2+ goals
39%
Invincible Eleven 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
58%
Invincible Eleven (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Invincible Eleven away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Invincible Eleven defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

Invincible Eleven attack 0.90 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Freeport scores more
44%
level
24%
Invincible Eleven scores more
32%

Freeport at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Freeport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Freeport 1–1 Invincible Eleven

Freeport and Invincible Eleven drew 1-1 in LFA First Division on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Samuel Kanyon Doe Practice Pitch in Monrovia.