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Freeport vs Heaven Eleven — LFA First Division 2020

Freeport
Freeport
FT
2 – 2
Heaven Eleven
Heaven Eleven
4/22/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 26TUSA Sport Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Freeport34%
×Draw23%
Heaven Eleven42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freeport
1.50
Heaven Eleven
1.69

Heaven Eleven creates 13% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 60 away

creates per match

Freeport
1.50
Heaven Eleven
1.55

allows per match

Freeport
1.82
Heaven Eleven
1.50

finishing

Freeport+0.00on par
Heaven Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freeport ↓

Heaven Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Freeport or draw
58%
Freeport or Heaven Eleven
77%
Draw or Heaven Eleven
66%

Winning margin

Freeport wins by 2+
16%
Heaven Eleven wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Freeport 1+ goals
78%
Freeport 2+ goals
44%
Freeport 3+ goals
19%
Heaven Eleven 1+ goals
82%
Heaven Eleven 2+ goals
50%
Heaven Eleven 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Freeport (draw refunded)
45%
Heaven Eleven (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freeport at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

Heaven Eleven away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freeport attack 1.50 + Heaven Eleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Heaven Eleven attack 1.55 + Freeport defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Freeport scores more
34%
level
23%
Heaven Eleven scores more
42%

Heaven Eleven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Heaven Eleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freeport vs Heaven Eleven

Freeport and Heaven Eleven drew 2-2 in LFA First Division on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at TUSA Sport Field in Monrovia.