Fredrikstad 1–0 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

Fredrikstad

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ham-Kam

H. Johansen 79'

11/23/2024

Eliteserien · Round 29Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Fredrikstad49%

×Draw24%

Ham-Kam27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FredrikstadExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.18

Fredrikstad

1.67

Ham-Kam

1.18

Fredrikstad creates 42% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

1.60

creates per match

1.03

1.33

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Fredrikstad

1.60

Ham-Kam

1.03

allows per match

Fredrikstad

1.33

Ham-Kam

1.73

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Fredrikstad-0.13scores less

Ham-Kam-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fredrikstad or draw

73%

Fredrikstad or Ham-Kam

76%

Draw or Ham-Kam

51%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad wins by 2+

26%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fredrikstad 1+ goals

81%

Fredrikstad 2+ goals

50%

Fredrikstad 3+ goals

23%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

69%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

33%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad (draw refunded)

64%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.73 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad attack 1.60 + Ham-Kam defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.67

Ham-Kam attack 1.03 + Fredrikstad defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fredrikstad scores more

49%

level

24%

Ham-Kam scores more

27%

Fredrikstad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fredrikstad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

F. Fall

Fredrikstad · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

J. Kjær← S. Sørløkk

49'

Fredrik SjolstadGoal cancelled

59'

B. Hendriksson← D. Eid

59'

S. Molde← S. Rafn

59'

H. Johansen← H. Skogvold

62'

V. Jónsson← S. Strand Nilsen

64'

Julius Magnusson

64'

Gard Simenstad

77'

P. Kirkevold← H. Udahl

77'

K. Onsrud← M. Johnsgård

79'

H. Johansen↳ J. Bjartalíð

84'

P. Metcalfe← J. Bjartalíð

87'

O. Dobloug← L. Mares

87'

J. Norheim← G. Simenstad

90+3'

John Olav Norheim

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FredrikstadHam-Kam

Overview

54%Possession46%

15Total Shots8

1.02Expected Goals (xG)0.21

3Corners2

8Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots8

2On Target5

7Off Target2

6Blocked1

9Inside Box6

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

515Total Passes444

417Accurate Passes332

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam

Fredrikstad beat Ham-Kam 1-0 in Eliteserien on November 23, 2024.

Goals: H. Johansen (79').

Fredrikstad controlled possession (54%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion in Fredrikstad.

Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam