Fredrikstad II vs Eik-Tønsberg

Fredrikstad II

CANC

14:00

Eik-Tønsberg

10/17/2020

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 11Nye Fredrikstad Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fredrikstad II47%

×Draw20%

Eik-Tønsberg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fredrikstad IIExpected goals in this matchEik-Tønsberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.83

Fredrikstad II

2.23

Eik-Tønsberg

1.83

Fredrikstad II creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

3.33

creates per match

2.00

1.67

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Fredrikstad II

3.33

Eik-Tønsberg

2.00

allows per match

Fredrikstad II

1.67

Eik-Tønsberg

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fredrikstad II+0.00on par

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fredrikstad II ↓

Eik-Tønsberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Fredrikstad II or draw

68%

Fredrikstad II or Eik-Tønsberg

80%

Draw or Eik-Tønsberg

53%

Winning margin

Fredrikstad II wins by 2+

28%

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fredrikstad II 1+ goals

89%

Fredrikstad II 2+ goals

65%

Fredrikstad II 3+ goals

38%

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals

84%

Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals

54%

Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Fredrikstad II (draw refunded)

59%

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fredrikstad II at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Eik-Tønsberg away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fredrikstad II attack 3.33 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 2.23

Eik-Tønsberg attack 2.00 + Fredrikstad II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fredrikstad II scores more

47%

level

20%

Eik-Tønsberg scores more

32%

Fredrikstad II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fredrikstad II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff