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Frechen vs TuS BW Königsdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Frechen
Frechen
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
11/10/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 14Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Frechen51%
×Draw21%
TuS BW Königsdorf28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frechen
2.13
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.52

Frechen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 60 away

creates per match

Frechen
2.34
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.48

allows per match

Frechen
1.56
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.92

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par
TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Frechen or draw
72%
Frechen or TuS BW Königsdorf
79%
Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf
49%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+
30%
TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals
88%
Frechen 2+ goals
63%
Frechen 3+ goals
35%
TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
78%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
45%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)
65%
TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.13

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Frechen scores more
51%
level
21%
TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
28%

Frechen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Frechen 3–1 TuS BW Königsdorf

Frechen beat TuS BW Königsdorf 3-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Kurt-Bornhoff-Sportpark in Frechen.