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Frechen vs Freialdenhoven — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Frechen
Frechen
FT
1 – 4
Freialdenhoven
Freialdenhoven
9/20/2020Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 3Kurt Bornhoff Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Frechen46%
×Draw22%
Freialdenhoven33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frechen
2.00
Freialdenhoven
1.66

Frechen creates 20% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

creates per match

Frechen
2.34
Freialdenhoven
1.75

allows per match

Frechen
1.56
Freialdenhoven
1.67

finishing

Frechen+0.00on par
Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frechen ↓

Freialdenhoven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Frechen or draw
67%
Frechen or Freialdenhoven
78%
Draw or Freialdenhoven
54%

Winning margin

Frechen wins by 2+
26%
Freialdenhoven wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Frechen 1+ goals
86%
Frechen 2+ goals
59%
Frechen 3+ goals
32%
Freialdenhoven 1+ goals
81%
Freialdenhoven 2+ goals
49%
Freialdenhoven 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Frechen (draw refunded)
59%
Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frechen at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.56 · 80 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frechen attack 2.34 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Frechen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Frechen scores more
46%
level
22%
Freialdenhoven scores more
33%

Frechen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Frechen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Frechen vs Freialdenhoven

Freialdenhoven beat Frechen 4-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Kurt Bornhoff Sportpark in Frechen.