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Frauental vs Rottenmann — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Frauental
Frauental
PST
16:30
Rottenmann
Rottenmann
6/5/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 29Sportplatz Sv Frauental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Frauental41%
×Draw23%
Rottenmann36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Frauental
1.69
Rottenmann
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 55 home / 27 away

creates per match

Frauental
1.22
Rottenmann
1.19

allows per match

Frauental
1.96
Rottenmann
2.15

finishing

Frauental+0.00on par
Rottenmann+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Frauental ↓

Rottenmann →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Frauental or draw
64%
Frauental or Rottenmann
77%
Draw or Rottenmann
59%

Winning margin

Frauental wins by 2+
21%
Rottenmann wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Frauental 1+ goals
82%
Frauental 2+ goals
50%
Frauental 3+ goals
24%
Rottenmann 1+ goals
79%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
46%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Frauental (draw refunded)
53%
Rottenmann (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Frauental at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

Rottenmann away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Frauental attack 1.22 + Rottenmann defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rottenmann attack 1.19 + Frauental defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Frauental scores more
41%
level
23%
Rottenmann scores more
36%

Frauental at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Frauental will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauental vs Rottenmann — Match Preview

Frauental face Rottenmann on June 5, 2020 in this Landesliga - Steiermark fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Frauental host Rottenmann at Sportplatz Sv Frauental.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.