Grimsby 0–3 Oldham: Result & Stats | League Two

Grimsby

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Oldham

9/15/2018

League Two · Round 8Blundell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Grimsby43%

×Draw26%

Oldham31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrimsbyExpected goals in this matchOldham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.19

Grimsby

1.46

Oldham

1.19

Grimsby creates 23% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.76

creates per match

1.40

0.97

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Grimsby

1.76

Oldham

1.40

allows per match

Grimsby

0.97

Oldham

1.16

+0.84scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Grimsby+0.84scores more

Oldham+0.06on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grimsby ↓

Oldham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Grimsby or draw

69%

Grimsby or Oldham

74%

Draw or Oldham

57%

Winning margin

Grimsby wins by 2+

21%

Oldham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Grimsby 1+ goals

77%

Grimsby 2+ goals

43%

Grimsby 3+ goals

18%

Oldham 1+ goals

70%

Oldham 2+ goals

33%

Oldham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Grimsby (draw refunded)

58%

Oldham (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grimsby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.97 · 5 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.16 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grimsby attack 1.76 + Oldham defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Oldham attack 1.40 + Grimsby defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grimsby scores more

43%

level

26%

Oldham scores more

31%

Grimsby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff