Fraga 3–2 CDJ Tamarite: Result & Stats

Fraga

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

CDJ Tamarite

12/21/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 19Estadio de La Estacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fraga50%

×Draw25%

CDJ Tamarite24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FragaExpected goals in this matchCDJ Tamarite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.00

Fraga

1.56

CDJ Tamarite

1.00

Fraga creates 56% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 98 away

1.30

creates per match

1.05

0.95

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Fraga

1.30

CDJ Tamarite

1.05

allows per match

Fraga

0.95

CDJ Tamarite

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fraga+0.00on par

CDJ Tamarite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fraga ↓

CDJ Tamarite →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fraga or draw

76%

Fraga or CDJ Tamarite

75%

Draw or CDJ Tamarite

50%

Winning margin

Fraga wins by 2+

26%

CDJ Tamarite wins by 2+

Team goals

Fraga 1+ goals

79%

Fraga 2+ goals

46%

Fraga 3+ goals

21%

CDJ Tamarite 1+ goals

63%

CDJ Tamarite 2+ goals

26%

CDJ Tamarite 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Fraga (draw refunded)

67%

CDJ Tamarite (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Fraga at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.95 · 66 matches

CDJ Tamarite away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.81 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Fraga attack 1.30 + CDJ Tamarite defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

CDJ Tamarite attack 1.05 + Fraga defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fraga scores more

50%

level

25%

CDJ Tamarite scores more

24%

Fraga at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fraga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff