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Fovu Club vs PWD Bamenda — Elite One 2019

Fovu Club
Fovu Club
FT
2 – 1
PWD Bamenda
PWD Bamenda
1/5/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 16Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Fovu Club40%
×Draw30%
PWD Bamenda31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fovu Club
1.15
PWD Bamenda
0.97

Fovu Club creates 19% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 99 away

creates per match

Fovu Club
1.11
PWD Bamenda
1.01

allows per match

Fovu Club
0.94
PWD Bamenda
1.18

finishing

Fovu Club+0.00on par
PWD Bamenda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fovu Club ↓

PWD Bamenda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fovu Club or draw
69%
Fovu Club or PWD Bamenda
70%
Draw or PWD Bamenda
60%

Winning margin

Fovu Club wins by 2+
17%
PWD Bamenda wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fovu Club 1+ goals
68%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
32%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
11%
PWD Bamenda 1+ goals
62%
PWD Bamenda 2+ goals
25%
PWD Bamenda 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fovu Club (draw refunded)
57%
PWD Bamenda (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fovu Club at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.94 · 70 matches

PWD Bamenda away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.18 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fovu Club attack 1.11 + PWD Bamenda defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

PWD Bamenda attack 1.01 + Fovu Club defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fovu Club scores more
40%
level
30%
PWD Bamenda scores more
31%

Fovu Club at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Fovu Club 2–1 PWD Bamenda

Fovu Club beat PWD Bamenda 2-1 in Elite One on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Omnisports de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.