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Forward Madison vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

Forward Madison
Forward Madison
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
9/21/2023USL League OneUSL League One · Round 18Breese Stevens Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Forward Madison40%
×Draw28%
Northern Colorado31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forward Madison
1.23
Northern Colorado
1.05

Forward Madison creates 17% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 43 away

creates per match

Forward Madison
1.30
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

Forward Madison
0.85
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

Forward Madison+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forward Madison ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Forward Madison or draw
69%
Forward Madison or Northern Colorado
72%
Draw or Northern Colorado
60%

Winning margin

Forward Madison wins by 2+
18%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Forward Madison 1+ goals
71%
Forward Madison 2+ goals
35%
Forward Madison 3+ goals
13%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
65%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
28%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Forward Madison (draw refunded)
56%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forward Madison at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.85 · 99 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forward Madison attack 1.30 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Forward Madison defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Forward Madison scores more
40%
level
28%
Northern Colorado scores more
31%

Forward Madison at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Forward Madison will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forward Madison vs Northern Colorado

Forward Madison and Northern Colorado drew 0-0 in USL League One on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Breese Stevens Field in Madison, Wisconsin.