Fortuna Sittard 4–1 Heracles: Result & Stats

Fortuna Sittard

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Heracles

11/10/2023

Eredivisie · Round 12Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Fortuna Sittard51%

×Draw23%

Heracles25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna SittardExpected goals in this matchHeracles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.19

Fortuna Sittard

1.79

Heracles

1.19

Fortuna Sittard creates 50% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 117 away

1.45

creates per match

0.79

1.58

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.45

Heracles

0.79

allows per match

Fortuna Sittard

1.58

Heracles

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Sittard+0.00on par

Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Sittard ↓

Heracles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fortuna Sittard or draw

75%

Fortuna Sittard or Heracles

77%

Draw or Heracles

49%

Winning margin

Fortuna Sittard wins by 2+

28%

Heracles wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fortuna Sittard 1+ goals

83%

Fortuna Sittard 2+ goals

53%

Fortuna Sittard 3+ goals

26%

Heracles 1+ goals

70%

Heracles 2+ goals

33%

Heracles 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Sittard (draw refunded)

67%

Heracles (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Sittard at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.58 · 132 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.12 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Sittard attack 1.45 + Heracles defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Heracles attack 0.79 + Fortuna Sittard defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fortuna Sittard scores more

51%

level

23%

Heracles scores more

25%

Fortuna Sittard at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fortuna Sittard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff