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Fortuna Regensburg vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
Preview
12:00
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
10/17/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 15
Big match
54%
Fortuna Regensburg
model favours
54%20%26%

Their last 6 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg54%
×Draw20%
Würzburger FV26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.29
Würzburger FV
1.56

Fortuna Regensburg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Würzburger FV
1.31

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Würzburger FV
2.00

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
74%
Fortuna Regensburg or Würzburger FV
80%
Draw or Würzburger FV
46%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
33%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
90%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
66%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
40%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
79%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
46%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
67%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.00 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Würzburger FV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Würzburger FV attack 1.31 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
54%
level
20%
Würzburger FV scores more
26%

Fortuna Regensburg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Regensburg
WDWWL
FV
DLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fortuna Regensburg host Würzburger FV

October 17, 2026: Fortuna Regensburg take on Würzburger FV in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.