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Fortuna Regensburg vs Stadeln — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
Preview
12:00
Stadeln
Stadeln
9/19/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11
60%
Fortuna Regensburg
model favours
60%20%20%
2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg60%
×Draw20%
Stadeln20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.29
Stadeln
1.25

Fortuna Regensburg creates 83% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 16 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Stadeln
0.69

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Stadeln
2.00

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Stadeln+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Stadeln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
80%
Fortuna Regensburg or Stadeln
80%
Draw or Stadeln
40%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
38%
Stadeln wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
90%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
66%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
40%
Stadeln 1+ goals
71%
Stadeln 2+ goals
36%
Stadeln 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
75%
Stadeln (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Stadeln away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Stadeln defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Stadeln attack 0.69 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
60%
level
20%
Stadeln scores more
20%

Fortuna Regensburg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Regensburg
WDWWL
Stadeln
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortuna Regensburg vs Stadeln — Match Preview

Fortuna Regensburg face Stadeln on September 19, 2026 in this Oberliga - Bayern Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.