Fortuna Regensburg vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026
Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 51+ matches
Fortuna Regensburg43%
Gebenbach36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fortuna Regensburg creates 10% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 68 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over76
- Under24
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes74
- No26
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fortuna Regensburg ↓
Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches
Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.09
Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Fortuna Regensburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings
- Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.8 goals
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Eintracht BambergGebenbach
Eltersdorf
Abtswind
Donaustauf
Ammerthal
Cham
Jahn Regensburg II
Kornburg
Würzburger FV
ASV Neumarkt
ATSV Erlangen
1. SC Feucht
DJK Bamberg
Bayern Hof
Großbardorf
Weiden
GeesdorfIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fortuna Regensburg host Gebenbach on Friday, 23 April 2027 at 16:15. The match is part of the Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026/2027 season.
Fortuna Regensburg face Gebenbach (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)
Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Fortuna Regensburg hosting Gebenbach. Match starts April 23, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.