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Fortuna Regensburg vs Eintracht Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
Preview
16:30
Eintracht Bamberg
Eintracht Bamberg
7/25/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 2
42%
Fortuna Regensburg
model favours
42%22%36%

Eintracht Bamberg raise their game against the top half — 56% wins vs the upper half, only 50% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg42%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Bamberg36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
1.92
Eintracht Bamberg
1.75

Fortuna Regensburg creates 10% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Eintracht Bamberg
1.70

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Eintracht Bamberg
1.27

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Eintracht Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Eintracht Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
64%
Fortuna Regensburg or Eintracht Bamberg
78%
Draw or Eintracht Bamberg
58%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
23%
Eintracht Bamberg wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
85%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
57%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
30%
Eintracht Bamberg 1+ goals
83%
Eintracht Bamberg 2+ goals
52%
Eintracht Bamberg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
54%
Eintracht Bamberg (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Eintracht Bamberg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Eintracht Bamberg defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.92

Eintracht Bamberg attack 1.70 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
42%
level
22%
Eintracht Bamberg scores more
36%

Fortuna Regensburg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Regensburg
WDWWL
Bamberg
LWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortuna Regensburg face Eintracht Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Fortuna Regensburg hosting Eintracht Bamberg. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.