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Fortuna Regensburg vs DJK Bamberg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
Preview
16:30
DJK Bamberg
DJK Bamberg
8/7/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 4
60%
Fortuna Regensburg
model favours
60%19%21%

DJK Bamberg win just 17% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
69%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg60%
×Draw19%
DJK Bamberg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.46
DJK Bamberg
1.43

Fortuna Regensburg creates 72% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
DJK Bamberg
1.06

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
DJK Bamberg
2.35

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
DJK Bamberg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

DJK Bamberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
79%
Fortuna Regensburg or DJK Bamberg
81%
Draw or DJK Bamberg
40%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
38%
DJK Bamberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
91%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
70%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
44%
DJK Bamberg 1+ goals
76%
DJK Bamberg 2+ goals
42%
DJK Bamberg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
74%
DJK Bamberg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

DJK Bamberg away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + DJK Bamberg defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.46

DJK Bamberg attack 1.06 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
60%
level
19%
DJK Bamberg scores more
21%

Fortuna Regensburg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fortuna Regensburg and DJK Bamberg have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Regensburg
WDWWL
Bamberg
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortuna Regensburg face DJK Bamberg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Fortuna Regensburg hosting DJK Bamberg. Match starts August 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.