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Fortuna Regensburg vs Bayern Hof — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
Preview
16:00
Bayern Hof
Bayern Hof
8/28/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 8
Big match
48%
Fortuna Regensburg
model favours
48%21%31%

Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
72%
over 2.5 goals
71%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Fortuna Regensburg48%
×Draw21%
Bayern Hof31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Regensburg
2.09
Bayern Hof
1.66

Fortuna Regensburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 68 away

creates per match

Fortuna Regensburg
2.57
Bayern Hof
1.51

allows per match

Fortuna Regensburg
1.80
Bayern Hof
1.62

finishing

Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par
Bayern Hof+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Regensburg ↓

Bayern Hof →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Fortuna Regensburg or draw
69%
Fortuna Regensburg or Bayern Hof
79%
Draw or Bayern Hof
52%

Winning margin

Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
28%
Bayern Hof wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
88%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
62%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
34%
Bayern Hof 1+ goals
81%
Bayern Hof 2+ goals
49%
Bayern Hof 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
61%
Bayern Hof (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Regensburg at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.80 · 51 matches

Bayern Hof away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Regensburg attack 2.57 + Bayern Hof defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bayern Hof attack 1.51 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fortuna Regensburg scores more
48%
level
21%
Bayern Hof scores more
31%

Fortuna Regensburg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Regensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Regensburg
WDWWL
Hof
DDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortuna Regensburg face Bayern Hof (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Fortuna Regensburg hosting Bayern Hof. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.