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Fortuna Mfou vs Eding Sport — Elite One 2019

Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
PST
17:00
Eding Sport
Eding Sport
11/4/2020Elite OneElite One · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fortuna Mfou38%
×Draw28%
Eding Sport33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Mfou
1.21
Eding Sport
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 97 home / 54 away

creates per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.28
Eding Sport
1.00

allows per match

Fortuna Mfou
1.23
Eding Sport
1.13

finishing

Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par
Eding Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Mfou ↓

Eding Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fortuna Mfou or draw
67%
Fortuna Mfou or Eding Sport
72%
Draw or Eding Sport
62%

Winning margin

Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
16%
Eding Sport wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
70%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
34%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
12%
Eding Sport 1+ goals
67%
Eding Sport 2+ goals
30%
Eding Sport 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
53%
Eding Sport (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Mfou at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.23 · 97 matches

Eding Sport away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.28 + Eding Sport defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Eding Sport attack 1.00 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fortuna Mfou scores more
38%
level
28%
Eding Sport scores more
33%

Fortuna Mfou at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fortuna Mfou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fortuna Mfou host Eding Sport

November 4, 2020: Fortuna Mfou take on Eding Sport in Elite One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.