Fortuna Köln II 3–4 Hürth: Result & Stats

Fortuna Köln II

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Hürth

5/15/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 30Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Fortuna Köln II49%

×Draw22%

Hürth29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln IIExpected goals in this matchHürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.50

Fortuna Köln II

1.99

Hürth

1.50

Fortuna Köln II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 66 away

1.96

creates per match

1.41

1.58

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.96

Hürth

1.41

allows per match

Fortuna Köln II

1.58

Hürth

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln II ↓

Hürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln II or draw

71%

Fortuna Köln II or Hürth

78%

Draw or Hürth

51%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+

28%

Hürth wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals

86%

Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals

59%

Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals

32%

Hürth 1+ goals

78%

Hürth 2+ goals

44%

Hürth 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)

63%

Hürth (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln II at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.96 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.99

Hürth attack 1.41 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fortuna Köln II scores more

49%

level

22%

Hürth scores more

29%

Fortuna Köln II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fortuna Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff