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Fortuna Hjørring W vs ASA Aarhus W — Kvindeliga 2019

Fortuna Hjørring W
Fortuna Hjørring W
Preview
13:00
ASA Aarhus W
ASA Aarhus W
12/9/2026KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 17
43%
ASA Aarhus W
model favours
32%26%43%

Fortuna Hjørring W and ASA Aarhus W have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fortuna Hjørring W32%
×Draw26%
ASA Aarhus W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.23
ASA Aarhus W
1.48

ASA Aarhus W creates 20% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 5 away

creates per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
1.85
ASA Aarhus W
2.00

allows per match

Fortuna Hjørring W
0.95
ASA Aarhus W
0.60

finishing

Fortuna Hjørring W+0.00on par
ASA Aarhus W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Hjørring W ↓

ASA Aarhus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fortuna Hjørring W or draw
57%
Fortuna Hjørring W or ASA Aarhus W
74%
Draw or ASA Aarhus W
68%

Winning margin

Fortuna Hjørring W wins by 2+
13%
ASA Aarhus W wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Fortuna Hjørring W 1+ goals
71%
Fortuna Hjørring W 2+ goals
35%
Fortuna Hjørring W 3+ goals
13%
ASA Aarhus W 1+ goals
77%
ASA Aarhus W 2+ goals
43%
ASA Aarhus W 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Hjørring W (draw refunded)
42%
ASA Aarhus W (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Hjørring W at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

ASA Aarhus W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Hjørring W attack 1.85 + ASA Aarhus W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.23

ASA Aarhus W attack 2.00 + Fortuna Hjørring W defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fortuna Hjørring W scores more
32%
level
26%
ASA Aarhus W scores more
43%

ASA Aarhus W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "ASA Aarhus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
WWLWL
W
WWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fortuna Hjørring W vs ASA Aarhus W — Match Preview

Fortuna Hjørring W face ASA Aarhus W on December 9, 2026 in this Kvindeliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.